The Prism - Round 5 2015

Hot topic
The scheduling of games can make or break a team's profit for the year. The free to air games give a club's sponsors the most exposure to viewers, and the timing of games will usually determine the size of the crowd; weather permitting.

The first 20 rounds are predetermined before the start of the season. Channel 9 has a big say in the draw as they naturally want the games that are expected to have the best ratings in their prime time slots. Therefore, you would expect that the top teams from the previous season will get better scheduling. However, this is not the case.

There is a real bias to some teams which does not promote an even competition. Below is an analysis of the number of free-to-air games in the first 20 rounds and where each team finished in 2014.

The reigning Premiers, South Sydney, have their first 5 rounds on free-to-air TV and the runners-up Bulldogs have 10 in the first 11 rounds. However, the three out of Sydney teams in the top 9 (Cowboys, Storm and Warriors) will be rarely seen on Channel 9 up to the end of July. All three are very entertaining teams.

The Broncos continue to have a very favourable boost to their profits with 14 games on Channel 9, whereas their two Queensland neighbours will only have 6 between them. This will ensure that they will always be poorer cousins.

On the other hand, the underperforming Sharks and Tigers have a disproportionate number of games in their favour. The Tigers will be seen on free-to-air TV more than the top 6 from last year which is perplexing.

A sponsor will value its naming rights by how much exposure it will expect to get over the season. If a team enters a season without a major sponsor and the draw is unfavourable, it will not get full value from its sponsorships. The Titans started this season without a sponsor and only have 4 Channel 9 games which does not bode well for them.

If the league truly wants a level competition, it needs to equalise the revenue generating opportunities for teams so that the likes of the Titans can compete with the Broncos who are guaranteed a leg up by the draw.

Performance of the Week
Chris Sandow has started to show some consistency after facing his demons. His ultimate test came on Friday night when he faced his former club who felt compelled to dig up some bad memories.

In a show of real character, Sandow maintained his composure and led the team to a well-earned victory. Not only did he kick well, he scored a try and led the team around the park. He has started to become the focal point of the team now that Hayne has flown the coop.

Sandow was asked to look for a new club, but is now starting contract renewal talks given his new found form. This is a testament to the coach, club and the diminutive champion himself. Let's hope that he can become a legend of the game.

Predictions
Last week I only picked 4/8. The Sharks literally threw the game away, the Sea Eagles ran out of troops, the Cowboys got out of gaol in golden point and the Broncos were just too good. Here are my picks for this week:

Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs @ ANZ Stadium
The grand final rematch will be a must watch; two massive packs going toe-to-toe. Rabbitohs by 4

Titans vs. Broncos @ Cbus Super Stadium
The Titans got their break through win, but the Broncos are on a roll. Broncos by 6

Sea Eagles vs. Raiders @ Albury
This match has been taken to the Victorian border which should suit Canberra over the injury depleted Sea Eagles. Raiders by 4

Knights vs. Dragons @ Hunter Stadium
The Dragons have had a mini resurgence, but now meet the undefeated Knights at home. Knights by 2

Roosters vs. Sharks @ Allianz Stadium
This will be a lopsided affair. Roosters by 12

Eels vs. Tigers @ ANZ Stadium
The Eels are really showing some steel and the Tigers are full of energy. Eels by 4

Storm vs. Warriors @ AAMI Park
The Warriors missed a trick at home and now have to travel to a fortress. Storm by 10

Panthers vs. Cowboys @ Pepper Stadium
The Panthers are missing Soward but will be too disciplined for the Cowboys. Panthers by 6

Form Guide
The form guide calculates which teams have the most momentum, weighting recent performances higher than past wins. Note that it does not take into account injuries, hoodoos or personal bias. After four rounds, the power rankings are as follows:

1. Knights (+1) : have remained undefeated and are again at home
2. Bulldogs (+1) : recorded another win and now have a welcomed selection problem in the halves
3. Broncos (+2) : the Broncos of old are starting to re-emerge
4. Roosters (+2) : are floating to the top with two good wins
5. Rabbitohs (-4) : the champion team has had their first hiccup
6. Dragons (+4) : two wins doesn't make a season, they started with three last year then sacked the coach
7. Eels (-2) : hot and cold, currently warming up
8. Warriors (-4) : their loss at home may hurt later in the year
9. Storm (-2) : the Storm went close but lost in overtime
10. Panthers (-2) : can't wait to get Soward back
11. Tigers (-2) : very close loss against a Premiership favourite
12. Titans (+3) : were handed their solitary win at Shark Park
13. Cowboys (+3) : a splash of JT magic has got their season started
14. Sea Eagles (-3) : injuries will make things even harder this week
15. Raiders (-2) : the slide continues
16. Sharks (-2) : were afraid to win and passed the game away

Composite Team
Last week's composite team was made up of Australian representatives who only played one game for the Kangaroos. A couple of them may make a second appearance, but not any time soon. Can you work out the theme for the squad below?

1. Graeme Eadie
2. Steve Knight
3. Steve Matai
4. Ruben Wiki
5. Eric Grothe
6. Terry Lamb
7. Tommy Raudonikis
8. John Sattler
9. Geoff Toovey
10. David Gillespie
11. Beau Scott
12. Trevor Gillmeister
13. Les Boyd
14. Greg Bird
15. Sam Burgess
16. Ian Roberts
17. Petro Civoniceva

This team has a few points in them but their strength is on the bench. Predicted placing in 2015 table: 9th

Flash Back
This week's Flash Back is a Cowboys foundation player. Paul Bowman was a defensive centre who played all of his 203 games for the club from 1995 to 2007.

The Cowboys took a while to have any success in their early days, however, Bowman was voted North Queensland's player of the year in 1999 and 2000. With his consistent performances, Bowman was selected in the Queensland State of Origin team in 2000. He played all three matches even though his club team came last that year.

Bowman was made captain of the Cowboys in 2001 and again made the State of Origin team, although his team come second last. He scored 2 tries in that 3 game series.

After a couple more lean years, Bowman led the Cowboys to their first ever finals series in 2004. The season started with only one win and four losses, but they finished in 7th position after a run of 11 wins from the next 17 matches. They upset the 2nd place Bulldogs and then in a famous match for the club they beat the Broncos to make it to the Preliminary Final.

The following season, Bowman helped the Cowboys to their only Grand Final appearance against the Wests Tigers from 5th position. After starting strongly with a 6-0 lead, the game changed in the Tigers favour when Bowman threw a bad pass to avoid being taken into his own in-goal. Bryce Gibbs, not noted for scoring tries, picked up the loose ball and scored near the posts. Benji Marshall then sent the Tigers into the lead with his famous flick pass to Pat Richards; a lead which would not be reeled in by the Cowboys on the way to their 30-16 loss. At the end of the season, Bowman was named Player's Player of the year.

Bowman retired in 2007 having played the most games for the Cowboys over his 13 year career. He scored 62 tries and kicked a solitary goal. He will be remembered as a no nonsense centre who was a tough defender.

Until next week.