NRL Previews - 2014 Finals Week 1

Paul is back for a look at the weekend ahead as we enter the 2014 NRL Finals. Check out his tips and see if yours will match up...

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Below, Paul runs the rule over the first week of NRL Finals:

2nd Qualifying Final
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (2nd) v South Sydney Rabbitohs (3rd)
Friday 7:55pm at Allianz Stadium, Moore Park Sydney

The Finals. What a way to kick things off with two old Sydney rivals. They've played each other 133 times since 1947 and fans have truly hated each other with a passion at every single one of those games. Certainly, every Souths fan I know has more than just the average Manly hatred running through their veins - it's passed down from their rugby league ancestors. So, with the stage set for your Second Qualifying Final, we head to Bunnies' headquarters at Allianz Stadium for Friday night footy.

No secret that the Eagles have not been at their best lately, they've lost 3 from their past 5 including a 20 point thumping at the hands of Souths. Ordinarily, it wouldn't be hard to see them stepping up for the finals and changing that momentum but this year, a big ask. The Rabbitohs have been priming themselves for this battle for 3 years and with plenty of semi-final experience of their own to call on, they'll finish stronger. Keep any eye on Luke Keary barking his way through the 80 minutes. Hilarious.

My tip: Rabbitohs 18-8

1st Qualifying Final
Sydney Roosters (1st) v Penrith Panthers (4th)
Saturday 5:50pm at Allianz Stadium, Moore Park Sydney

The defending premiers, minor premiers and competition favourites are your shortest price this week. They are clearly the form team of the competition and with weapons from 1 through 17, they will take some stopping this Saturday against Penrith at Allianz Stadium. The Panthers have blown minds over the past 6 weeks with some impressive performances under duress and their reward was to finish 4th - but this is a bigger challenge for a team that has never played finals footy together.

Still - you can bet Ivan Cleary will have something special planned for the Chooks and I can't wait to see it. This is your match of the round and one that the Panthers will keep close, right to the end. More importantly though - don't miss the beginning - the Roosters forwards are a daunting bunch and with their beloved captain only a month away from the end of his career, they will be frothing at the mouth, champing at the bit and getting themselves a week off.

My tip: Roosters 24-12

1st Elimination Final
North Queensland Cowboys (5th) v Brisbane Broncos (8th)
Saturday 7:55pm at 1300SMILES Stadium, Townsville

Saturday night from Townsville where the Cowboys are undefeated since round 3 this year and undefeated in finals footy since forever. No doubt they will be tested here through - the Broncos have nothing to lose and will always have a little extra in the tank when playing against their Queensland rivals. Add to this the superb form of their halfback, Ben Hunt and you have yourselves a close one with Brisbane scaring the pants off the home side for a while - but not long enough.

Johnathan Thurston, despite what the talking heads have been yapping about, is not in career best form - he has always been this good. The differences this year, for mine, are that he is not carrying a serious injury for once, and that his forwards are playing outstanding football. Of course, the two are intertwined - JTs shoulders have not had to carry the burden of 40 tackles a game. Speaking of JTs forwards, they will be the difference here with the Sims brothers, Matt Scott and future superstar Jason Taumalolo the standouts.

My tip: Cowboys 24-20

2nd Elimination Final
Melbourne Storm (6th) v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs (7th)
Sunday 4:10pm at AAMI Park, Melbourne

Week 1 of the finals rounds out with your Second Elimination Final from AAMI Park in Melbourne on Sunday afternoon. The ‘Dogs are hobbling but worse than this, it's tough to guess which Bulldogs team will turn up. Will it be the premiership calibre side that beat Melbourne at this very ground in round 18? Or will it be the side that slumped to its sixth loss in 8 games against the Titans last week? Don't answer that cos it may not matter.

The Storm don't need to worry about form, don't need to worry about consistency and are not confused about which personality they will play with in front of a packed house full of rabid purple pride punters. They are rightfully heavy favourites here and unless Canterbury can make adjustments to their attack, Melbourne will strangle them out of the season. The visitors have not been very creative will the ball of late and Melbourne's defence simply won't be tested enough.

My tip: Storm 19-12